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MarketGlory Online Strategy Games


MarketGlory Online Strategy Games

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Technical Analysis 8

Technical Analysis 8


Head and shoulders (chart pattern)

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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On the technical analysis chart, the Head and shoulders formation occurs when a price trend is in the process of reversal either from a bullish or bearish trend; a characteristic pattern takes shape and is recognized as reversal formation.

Head and shoulders top[edit]

Head and Shoulders Top
Head and Shoulders formation consists of a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder and a line drawn as the neckline. The left shoulder is formed at the end of an extensive move during which volume is noticeably high. After the peak of the left shoulder is formed, there is a subsequent reaction and prices slide down to a certain extent which generally occurs on low volume. The prices rally up to form the head with normal or heavy volume and subsequent reaction downward is accompanied with lesser volume. The right shoulder is formed when prices move up again but remain below the central peak called the Head and fall down nearly equal to the first valley between the left shoulder and the head or at least below the peak of the left shoulder. Volume is lesser in the right shoulder formation compared to the left shoulder and the head formation. A neckline is drawn across the bottoms of the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder. When prices break through this neckline and keep on falling after forming the right shoulder, it is the ultimate confirmation of the completion of the Head and Shoulders Top formation. It is quite possible that prices pull back to touch the neckline before continuing their declining trend.[citation needed]

Head and shoulders bottom[edit]

Head and Shoulders Bottom
This formation is simply the inverse of a Head and Shoulders Top and often indicates a change in the trend and the sentiment. The formation is upside down in which volume pattern is different than a Head and Shoulder Top. Prices move up from first low with increase volume up to a level to complete the left shoulder formation and then falls down to a new low. It follows by a recovery move that is marked by somewhat more volume than seen before to complete the head formation. A corrective reaction on low volume occurs to start formation of the right shoulder and then a sharp move up that must be on quite heavy volume breaks though the neckline.
Another difference between the Head and Shoulders Top and Bottom is that the Top Formations are completed in a few weeks, whereas a Major Bottom (Left, right shoulder or the head) usually takes a longer, and as observed, may prolong for a period of several months or sometimes more than a year.

Importance of neckline[edit]

The drawn neckline of the pattern represents a support level, and assumption cannot be taken that the Head and Shoulder formation is completed unless it is broken and such breakthrough may happen to be on more volume or may not be. The breakthrough should not be observed carelessly. A serious situation can occur if such a break is more than three to four percent.
When a stock drifts through the neckline on small volume, there may be a wave up, although it is not certain, but it is observed, the rally normally does not cross the general level of the Neckline and before selling pressure increases, the steep decline occurs and prices tumble with greater volume.

Characteristics[edit]

  • Most of the time Head and Shoulders are not perfectly shaped. This formation is slightly tilted upward or downward.
  • One shoulder may appear to droop.
  • On many chart patterns, any one of the two shoulders may appear broader than the other which is caused by the time involved in the formation of the valleys.
  • The neckline may not be perfectly horizontal; it may be ascending or descending.
  • If the neckline is ascending then the only qualification of the formation lies in the fact that the lowest point of the right shoulder must be noticeably lower than the peak of the left shoulder.

Usage as a tool[edit]

Head and Shoulders is an extremely useful tool after its confirmation to estimate and measure the minimum probable extent of the subsequent move from the neckline. To find the distance of subsequent move, measure the vertical distance from the peak of the head to the neckline. Then measure this same distance down from the neckline beginning at the point where prices penetrate the neckline after the completion of the right shoulder. This gives the minimum objective of how far prices can decline after the completion of this top formation.
If the price advance preceding the Head and Shoulders top is not long, the subsequent price fall after its completion may be small as well.

Complex head and shoulders[edit]

Further information: Double top and double bottom and Triple top and triple bottom
This type of Head and Shoulders pattern has more than one left and/or right shoulders and/or head. It is also known as Multiple Head and Shoulders pattern.

External links[edit]

Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Head_and_shoulders_(chart_pattern)&oldid=564320520"
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Technical Analysis 7

Technical Analysis 7


Trend line (technical analysis)

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
  (Redirected from Trend lines (technical analysis))
Jump to: navigation, search
A trend line is formed when a diagonal line can be drawn between two or more price pivot points. They are commonly used to judge entry and exit investment timing when trading securities.[1] It can also be referred to as a dutch line as it was first used in Holland.
A trend line is a bounding line for the price movement of a security. A support trend line is formed when a securities price decreases and then rebounds at a pivot point that aligns with at least two previous support pivot points. Similarly a resistance trend line is formed when a securities price increases and then rebounds at a pivot point that aligns with at least two previous resistance pivot points. Stock often begin or end trending because of a stock catalyst such as a product launch or change in management.
Trend lines on a price chart.
Trend lines are a simple and widely used technical analysis approach to judging entry and exit investment timing. To establish a trend line historical data, typically presented in the format of a chart such as the above price chart, is required. Historically, trend lines have been drawn by hand on paper charts, but it is now more common to use charting software that enables trend lines to be drawn on computer based charts. There are some charting software that will automatically generate trend lines, however most traders prefer to draw their own trend lines.
When establishing trend lines it is important to choose a chart based on a price interval period that aligns with your trading strategy. Short term traders tend to use charts based on interval periods, such as 1 minute (i.e. the price of the security is plotted on the chart every 1 minute), with longer term traders using price charts based on hourly, daily, weekly and monthly interval periods.
However, time periods can also be viewed in terms of years. For example, below is a chart of the S&P 500 since the earliest data point until April 2008. While the Oracle example above uses a linear scale of price changes, long term data is more often viewed as logarithmic: e.g. the changes are really an attempt to approximate percentage changes than pure numerical value.

Previous chart from 1950 to about 1990, showing how linear scale obscures details by compressing the data.


Trend lines are typically used with price charts, however they can also be used with a range of technical analysis charts such as MACD and RSI. Trend lines can be used to identify positive and negative trending charts, whereby a positive trending chart forms an upsloping line when the support and the resistance pivots points are aligned, and a negative trending chart forms a downsloping line when the support and resistance pivot points are aligned.
Trend lines are used in many ways by traders. If a stock price is moving between support and resistance trend lines, then a basic investment strategy commonly used by traders, is to buy a stock at support and sell at resistance, then short at resistance and cover the short at support. The logic behind this, is that when the price returns to an existing principal trend line it may be an opportunity to open new positions in the direction of the trend, in the belief that the trend line will hold and the trend will continue further. A second way is that when price action breaks through the principal trend line of an existing trend, it is evidence that the trend may be going to fail, and a trader may consider trading in the opposite direction to the existing trend, or exiting positions in the direction of the trend.

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Edwards, Robert D.; Magee, John (1948). "14". Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. Springfield, MA, USA: Stock Trend Service. p. 505. ISBN 1-880408-00-7. 
Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Trend_line_(technical_analysis)&oldid=581050789"
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Technical Analysis 6

Technical Analysis 6


Charting terms and indicators[edit]

Concepts[edit]

  • Average true range – averaged daily trading range, adjusted for price gaps
  • Breakout – the concept whereby prices forcefully penetrate an area of prior support or resistance, usually, but not always, accompanied by an increase in volume.
  • Chart pattern – distinctive pattern created by the movement of security prices on a chart
  • Cycles – time targets for potential change in price action (price only moves up, down, or sideways)
  • Dead cat bounce – the phenomenon whereby a spectacular decline in the price of a stock is immediately followed by a moderate and temporary rise before resuming its downward movement
  • Elliott wave principle and the golden ratio to calculate successive price movements and retracements
  • Fibonacci ratios – used as a guide to determine support and resistance
  • Momentum – the rate of price change
  • Point and figure analysis – A priced-based analytical approach employing numerical filters which may incorporate time references, though ignores time entirely in its construction
  • Resistance – a price level that may prompt a net increase of selling activity
  • Support – a price level that may prompt a net increase of buying activity
  • Trending – the phenomenon by which price movement tends to persist in one direction for an extended period of time

Types of charts[edit]

  • Candlestick chart – Of Japanese origin and similar to OHLC, candlesticks widen and fill the interval between the open and close prices to emphasize the open/close relationship. In the West, often black or red candle bodies represent a close lower than the open, while white, green or blue candles represent a close higher than the open price.
  • Line chart – Connects the closing price values with line segments.
  • Open-high-low-close chart – OHLC charts, also known as bar charts, plot the span between the high and low prices of a trading period as a vertical line segment at the trading time, and the open and close prices with horizontal tick marks on the range line, usually a tick to the left for the open price and a tick to the right for the closing price.
  • Point and figure chart – a chart type employing numerical filters with only passing references to time, and which ignores time entirely in its construction.

Overlays[edit]

Overlays are generally superimposed over the main price chart.
  • Bollinger bands – a range of price volatility
  • Channel – a pair of parallel trend lines
  • Ichimoku kinko hyo – a moving average-based system that factors in time and the average point between a candle's high and low
  • Moving average – the last n-bars of price divided by "n"—where "n" is the number of bars specified by the length of the average. A moving average can be thought of as a kind of dynamic trend-line.
  • Parabolic SAR – Wilder's trailing stop based on prices tending to stay within a parabolic curve during a strong trend
  • Pivot point – derived by calculating the numerical average of a particular currency's or stock's high, low and closing prices
  • Resistance – a price level that may act as a ceiling above price
  • Support – a price level that may act as a floor below price
  • Trend line – a sloping line described by at least two peaks or two troughs

Breadth Indicators[edit]

These indicators are based on statistics derived from the broad market

Price-based indicators[edit]

These indicators are generally shown below or above the main price chart.

Volume-based indicators[edit]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Jump up to: a b Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist. Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians. Financial Times Press, 2006, page 3. ISBN 0-13-153113-1
  2. Jump up ^ http://seekingalpha.com/article/114523-beating-the-quants-at-their-own-game
  3. Jump up ^ http://www.capco.com/sites/all/files/journal-32_article-10.pdf
  4. Jump up ^ http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1118080
  5. Jump up ^ Paul V. Azzopardi (2010). Behavioural Technical Analysis: An introduction to behavioural finance and its role in technical analysis. Harriman House. ISBN 1905641419. 
  6. Jump up ^ Andrew W. Lo; Jasmina Hasanhodzic (2010). The Evolution of Technical Analysis: Financial Prediction from Babylonian Tablets to Bloomberg Terminals. Bloomberg Press. p. 150. ISBN 1576603490. Retrieved 8 August 2011. 
  7. Jump up ^ Joseph de la Vega, Confusión de Confusiones, 1688
  8. Jump up ^ Nison, Steve (1991). Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques. pp. 15–18. ISBN 0-13-931650-7. 
  9. Jump up ^ Nison, Steve (1994). Beyond Candlesticks: New Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed, John Wiley and Sons, p. 14. ISBN 0-471-00720-X
  10. ^ Jump up to: a b c d Murphy, John J. Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. New York Institute of Finance, 1999, pp. 1-5, 24-31. ISBN 0-7352-0066-1
  11. Jump up ^ Ibidem Elder 1993, Part III Classical Chart Analysis
  12. Jump up ^ Ibidem Elder 1993 Part II "Mass Psychology" Chapter 17 "Managing versus Forecasting" pp. 65 to 68
  13. ^ Jump up to: a b Irwin, Scott H. and Park, Cheol-Ho. (2007). "What Do We Know About the Profitability of Technical Analysis?" Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 786-826. Available at SSRN. doi:10.1111/j.1467-6419.2007.00519.x.
  14. Jump up ^ Paulos, J.A. (2003). A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market. Basic Books. 
  15. Jump up ^ Fama, Eugene (May 1970). "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," The Journal of Finance, v. 25 (2), pp. 383-417.
  16. ^ Jump up to: a b Griffioen, Technical Analysis in Financial Markets
  17. Jump up ^ Schwager, Jack D. Getting Started in Technical Analysis. Wiley, 1999, p. 2. ISBN 0-471-29542-6
  18. Jump up ^ Taylor, Mark P.; Allen, Helen (1992). "The Use of Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market". Journal of International Money and Finance 11 (3): 304–314. doi:10.1016/0261-5606(92)90048-3. 
  19. Jump up ^ Cross, Sam Y. (1998). All About the Foreign Exchange Market in the United States, Federal Reserve Bank of New York chapter 11, pp. 113-115.
  20. Jump up ^ Brock, William; Lakonishok, Josef; Lebaron, Blake (1992). "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns". The Journal of Finance 47 (5): 1731–1764. doi:10.2307/2328994. JSTOR 2328994. 
  21. ^ Jump up to: a b Osler, Karen (July 2000). "Support for Resistance: Technical Analysis and Intraday Exchange Rates," FRBNY Economic Policy Review (abstract and paper here).
  22. Jump up ^ Neely, Christopher J., and Paul A. Weller (2001). "Technical analysis and Central Bank Intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, 20 (7), 949–70 (abstract and paper here)
  23. Jump up ^ Taylor, M.P.; Allen, H. (1992). "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market". Journal of International Money and Finance 11 (3): 304–314. doi:10.1016/0261-5606(92)90048-3. Retrieved 2008-03-29. 
  24. Jump up ^ Frankel, J.A.; Froot, K.A. (1990). "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market". The American Economic Review 80 (2): 181–185. JSTOR 2006566. 
  25. Jump up ^ Neely, C.J (1998). "Technical Analysis and the Profitability of US Foreign Exchange Intervention". Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 80 (4): 3–17. Retrieved 2008-03-29. 
  26. Jump up ^ Lento, Camillo (2008). "A Combined Signal Approach to Technical Analysis on the S&P 500". Journal of Business & Economics Research 6 (8): 41–51. 
  27. Jump up ^ Ibidem Elder 2008, Chapter 1 - section "Trend vs Counter-Trending Trading"
  28. Jump up ^ Stock Market as a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
  29. ^ Jump up to: a b Kahn, Michael N. (2006). Technical Analysis Plain and Simple: Charting the Markets in Your Language, Financial Times Press, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, p. 80. ISBN 0-13-134597-4.
  30. Jump up ^ Baiynd, Anne-Marie (2011). The Trading Book: A Complete Solution to Mastering Technical Systems and Trading Psychology. McGraw-Hill. p. 272. ISBN 9780071766494. Retrieved 2013-04-30. 
  31. Jump up ^ Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist. Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians. Financial Times Press, 2006, p. 87. ISBN 0-13-153113-1
  32. Jump up ^ Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist. Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians. Financial Times Press, 2006, p. 86. ISBN 0-13-153113-1
  33. Jump up ^ Kim Man Lui, Lun Hu, and Keith C.C. Chan. "Discovering Pattern Associations in Hang Seng Index Constituent Stocks", International Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 2, No. 2 (2010)
  34. Jump up ^ Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians, p. 7
  35. Jump up ^ http://www.ataa.com.au
  36. Jump up ^ http://www.apta.org.au
  37. Jump up ^ http://knowledgebase.mta.org/
  38. Jump up ^ http://www3.finra.org/web/groups/industry/@ip/@reg/@notice/documents/notices/p013390.pdf
  39. Jump up ^ K. Funahashi, On the approximate realization of continuous mappings by neural networks, Neural Networks vol 2, 1989
  40. Jump up ^ K. Hornik, Multilayer feed-forward networks are universal approximators, Neural Networks, vol 2, 1989
  41. Jump up ^ R. Lawrence. Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices
  42. Jump up ^ B.Egeli et al. Stock Market Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks
  43. Jump up ^ M. Zekić. Neural Network Applications in Stock Market Predictions - A Methodology Analysis
  44. Jump up ^ Ibidem Elder 1993, pp. 54 & 116 to 118
  45. Jump up ^ Ibidem Elder 1993
  46. Jump up ^ http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/450723/the_capital_growth_letter.htm
  47. Jump up ^ http://www.nyif.com/courses/tech_3002.html
  48. Jump up ^ http://www.iijournals.com/JOT/default.asp?Page=2&ISS=22278&SID=644085
  49. Jump up ^ https://www.mta.org/eweb/docs/1998DowAward.pdf
  50. Jump up ^ http://www.sfomag.com/departmentprintdetail.asp?ID=1776333475
  51. Jump up ^ Browning, E.S. (July 31, 2007). "Reading market tea leaves". The Wall Street Journal Europe (Dow Jones). pp. 17–18. 
  52. Jump up ^ Skabar, Cloete, Networks, Financial Trading and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis
  53. Jump up ^ Nauzer J. Balsara, Gary Chen and Lin Zheng "The Chinese Stock Market: An Examination of the Random Walk Model and Technical Trading Rules" The Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, Spring 2007
  54. Jump up ^ Sullivan, R.; Timmermann, A.; White, H. (1999). "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap". The Journal of Finance 54 (5): 1647–1691. doi:10.1111/0022-1082.00163. 
  55. Jump up ^ Chan, L.K.C.; Jegadeesh, N.; Lakonishok, J. (1996). "Momentum Strategies". The Journal of Finance (The Journal of Finance, Vol. 51, No. 5) 51 (5): 1681–1713. doi:10.2307/2329534. JSTOR 2329534. 
  56. Jump up ^ Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation, with Harry Mamaysky and Jiang Wang, Journal of Finance 55(2000), 1705-1765.
  57. ^ Jump up to: a b Lo, Andrew W.; Mamaysky, Harry; Wang, Jiang (2000). "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation". Journal of Finance 55 (4): 1705–1765. doi:10.1111/0022-1082.00265. 
  58. Jump up ^ David Keller, "Breakthroughs in Technical Analysis; New Thinking from the World's Top Minds," New York, Bloomberg Press, 2007, ISBN 978-1-57660-242-3 pp.1-19
  59. Jump up ^ Eugene Fama, "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," The Journal of Finance, volume 25, issue 2 (May 1970), pp. 383-417.
  60. ^ Jump up to: a b Aronson, David R. (2006). Evidence-Based Technical Analysis, Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons, pages 357, 355-356, 342. ISBN 978-0-470-00874-4.
  61. Jump up ^ Prechter, Robert R., Jr., and Wayne D. Parker (2007). "The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics: The Socionomic Perspective," Journal of Behavioral Finance, vol. 8 no. 2 (abstract here), pp. 84-108.
  62. ^ Jump up to: a b Clarke, J., T. Jandik, and Gershon Mandelker (2001). "The efficient markets hypothesis," Expert Financial Planning: Advice from Industry Leaders, ed. R. Arffa, 126-141. New York: Wiley & Sons.
  63. Jump up ^ Burton Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, W. W. Norton & Company (April 2003) p. 168.
  64. ^ Jump up to: a b Robert Huebscher. Burton Malkiel Talks the Random Walk. July 7, 2009.
  65. Jump up ^ Lo, Andrew; MacKinlay, Craig. A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street, Princeton University Press, 1999. ISBN 978-0-691-05774-3
  66. Jump up ^ Poser, Steven W. (2003). Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably, John Wiley and Sons, p. 71. ISBN 0-471-42007-7.
  67. Jump up ^ Eidenberger, Horst (2011). "Fundamental Media Understanding", atpress. ISBN 978-3-8423-7917-6.
  68. Jump up ^ AsiaPacFinance.com Trading Indicator Glossary
  69. Jump up ^ "A Theoretical Foundation for Technical Analysis," Journal of Technical Analysis, 59, 5-22, 2003 (University of Pittsburgh preprint 1994).
  70. Jump up ^ G. Caginalp and H. Laurent, "The Predictive Power of Price Patterns." Applied Mathematical Finance, Vol. 5, pp. 181-206, 1998.
  71. Jump up ^ J.M. Poterba and L.H. Summers, "Mean reversion in stock prices: Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics 22, 27-59, 1988.
  72. Jump up ^ Black, F. 1986. Noise. Journal of Finance 41:529-43.
  73. Jump up ^ G. Caginalp and G. Constantine, "Statistical inference and modeling of momentum in stock prices," Applied Mathematical Finance 2, 225-242, 1995.
  74. Jump up ^ C-H Park and S.H. Irwin, "The Profitability of Technical Analysis: A Review" AgMAS Project Research Report No. 2004-04
  75. Jump up ^ G. Caginalp and M. DeSantis, "Nonlinearity in the dynamics of financial markets," Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications, 12(2), 1140-1151, 2011.
  76. Jump up ^ Lefèvre; Edwin "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator; With new Commentary and Insights on the Life and Times of Jesse Livermore" John Wiley & Sons 2000 (1st edition 1923), page 01 & 18 ISBN 9780470481592
  77. Jump up ^ Ibidem Lefèvre - reprint 2000, page 17
  78. Jump up ^ Livermore; Jesse "How to Trade in Stocks" Duell, Sloan & Pearce NY 1940, pp. 17-18

Further reading[edit]

  • Covel, Michael. The Complete Turtle Trader. HarperCollins, 2007. ISBN 9780061241703
  • Douglas, Mark. The Disciplined Trader. New York Institute of Finance, 1990. ISBN 0-13-215757-8
  • Edwards, Robert D.; Magee, John; Bassetti, W.H.C. Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 9th Edition (Hardcover). American Management Association, 2007. ISBN 0-8493-3772-0
  • Fox, Justin. The Myth of the Rational Market. HarperCollings, 2009. ISBN 9780060598990
  • Hurst, J. M. The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing. Prentice-Hall, 1972. ISBN 0-13-726018-0
  • Neill, Humphrey B. Tape Reading & Market Tactics. First edition of 1931. Market Place 2007 reprint ISBN 10: 1592802621 / 1-59280-262-1
  • Neill, Humphrey B. The Art of Contrary Thinking. Caxton Press 1954.
  • Pring, Martin J. Technical Analysis Explained: The Successful Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. McGraw Hill, 2002. ISBN 0-07-138193-7
  • Raschke, Linda Bradford; Connors, Lawrence A. Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies. M. Gordon Publishing Group, 1995. ISBN 0-9650461-0-9
  • Rollo Tape & Wyckoff, Richard D. Studies in Tape Reading The Ticker Publishing Co. NY 1910.
  • Tharp, Van K. Definitive Guide to Position Sizing International Institute of Trading Mastery, 2008. ISBN 0935219099
  • Wilder, J. Welles. New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Trend Research, 1978. ISBN 0-89459-027-8
  • Ladis Konecny, Stocks and Exchange – the only Book you need, 2013, ISBN 9783848220656, technical analysis = chapter 8.
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